Expert Goykhman: “A recession may occur in 2026, but such a scenario cannot be considered inevitable”

— What is the state of the domestic economy?

— Economic indicators are not just numbers, they largely reflect the lives of ordinary people. For example, such indicators as the GDP growth rate, inflation and unemployment levels, budget status, and exchange rates. What are they like today? Contradictory. GDP is the most general benchmark, the volume of everything produced in the country's economy. In 2024, it grew by 4.3%. And now, in 2025, the rate is sharply declining. In the second quarter of 2025, the increase was 1.8% year-on-year, according to preliminary data from the Central Bank as of August 6.

— And what about inflation, the most noticeable phenomenon for people?

— Consumer prices rose by 9.5% in 2024, but as of August 4, 2025, annual inflation fell to 8.8%, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. This is a source of pride for our Central Bank. Let me remind you that its inflation target is 4%.

Another key indicator is unemployment. In June, it fell to 2.2%, while at the end of 2024 it was 3%.

— And the budget? The financing of medicine, education, culture, transport, salaries of millions of people and much more depends on it.

— The situation here is alarming. For the first seven months of 2025, the budget deficit, i.e. the excess of expenses over income, amounted to 4.9 trillion rubles, which is more than 4 times higher than the figure for the same period in 2024, when it did not exceed 1.1 trillion rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance. And this is already more than planned for the entire 2025 – after all, the authorities previously expected that the deficit would not exceed 3.8 trillion rubles.

— Budget revenues are affected by the ruble exchange rate. Perhaps that's the issue?

— The stable ruble exchange rate, which strengthened in 2025, is one of the reasons for the decline in inflation. It is beneficial for consumers and industries dependent on imports. However, it limits the possibilities of exports and budget revenues.

Thus, the economy is generally stable. Its strengths are a powerful raw material and production base, a significant excess of exports over imports, a low level of public debt, stabilization of inflation, and much more.

— But why then are the CMACS forecasts so pessimistic? It is obvious that there are problems?

— Yes, they are also on everyone’s lips. This is evident even from the brief list of key indicators. GDP growth rates are noticeably decreasing, and the trend is negative for the future. Budget problems limit state financing of the economy, they can drive up prices again. The remaining high key rate of the Central Bank — it is currently 18% — slows down production, investment, export and import. The geopolitical situation and sanctions practice limit international cooperation, the use of modern technologies, and the possibility of attracting capital. These and other factors create additional risks for the economy.

— Is the domestic economy really threatened by a recession as early as next year?

— A recession, simply put, is a decrease in the size of GDP, that is, not just a slowdown in its growth, but a decrease in the volume of goods and services created in the country. This is an unpleasant scenario for any economy. And there are indeed many alarm bells for it. Not just a slowdown in the overall rate of GDP growth, but also stagnation in many sectors, a slowdown in investment as a driver of economic development, a cooling of industrial production and business activity indices, purchases of durable goods, shipments of goods, and much more. These are leading indicators that are already signaling a possible further contraction of GDP. After all, the economy is very inertial, and the manifestation of current factors and trends may worsen the situation in the future.

Given these trends and their extension into the future, it is quite possible to assume the onset of a recession next year, but such a scenario cannot be considered absolutely inevitable. In the event of a change in current conditions, external and controlled internal, the situation may change for the better. A fall in the economy may be avoided.

— Can there be a recession with low unemployment?

— Indeed, 2.2% unemployment in June 2025 is the lowest level in the entire history of observations in Russia. On average, it was 6.8% in 1992–2025. That is, now it is three times less than the average! And lower than in most developed countries. For comparison, in the USA it is 4.2%, in the eurozone — 6.2%, in Great Britain — 4.7%, in Canada — 6.9%, in Norway — 5.4%.

And it seems that this is very good for us, since the population as a whole has fewer problems finding work. But in the economy, as in life in general, the principle is not only "every cloud has a silver lining", but also the opposite: "every cloud has a silver lining". Unemployment is too low. Yes, it can be excessively low. A normal level in a market economy can be considered approximately 3-5%. This is what the term "full employment" means. But if it is less, then there simply may not be enough people for the economy to grow. And then low unemployment becomes a restraining factor. This is largely the case now in a number of sectors in Russia - in industry, construction, the service sector, health care. Unemployment is a resource, a reserve for economic recovery.

In addition, due to the shortage of labor, there may be imbalances in wages. When, for example, a courier earns more than a university teacher, this leads to an unjustified increase in costs, a decrease in business profitability, inflation, which also slows down economic development. Thus, low unemployment does not exclude a slowdown in the economy.

— What is more dangerous for Russia’s GDP: sanctions, falling oil prices, a long period of high interest rates, a possible intensification of trade wars, or something else?

— The effect of each factor is individual in strength and depends on specific circumstances. In addition, they are interconnected, and it is hardly worth considering these drivers separately. Sanctions? We cannot assume what they will be like in the future, whether they will be stronger or, on the contrary, partially softened. The key rate of the Central Bank is indeed a very important circumstance, but with its probable reduction, the impact may be less. A decrease in oil prices would in fact further undermine the possibility of increasing export volumes and revenues. In its forecast, the Bank of Russia assumes a decrease to $55 per barrel on average in 2025 from $68 in 2024.

The notable risks are growing as trade wars escalate following talk of high tariffs on US imports coming into effect on August 8. They currently average 15.2%. In 2024, before Donald Trump took office, the average tariff was only 2.3%, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Such a rise — 6.6 times at once — for the world's largest importer could trigger a slowdown in the global economy, retaliatory measures from various countries, and a reduction in trade and investment flows. For Russia, the negative impact of such a situation could manifest itself in a contraction in demand for resources and an additional reduction in foreign investment. In addition, the tense geopolitical situation could also bring unexpected negative "black swans" that are now simply difficult to foresee.

— So what kind of economic growth can Russia expect in the next two years?

— Considering the above and other factors and trends, this year the Central Bank expects GDP growth within 1-2%, according to the regulator's July forecast. At the same time, the macroeconomic survey of its experts in July also fits into this range - 1.4%. Considering the recent forecast developments of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, there is a possibility of more modest growth. If we talk about the next year, 2026, the Bank of Russia expects GDP growth within 0.5-1.5%, which is really almost bordering on a recession.

— What should Russians prepare for in such conditions?

— The impact of the slowdown of the economy with a recession on the population may hypothetically depend on its depth and duration. It is, we repeat, far from being predetermined with inevitability. But the classic consequences of a recession for people are a slowdown in the growth of income, employment, a narrowing of the range of goods and services, and a weakening of the national currency.

However, going through its cycle with a slight decline in GDP over several quarters may not be so noticeable. In the case of a longer and more significant downturn in the economy, such phenomena may manifest themselves more strongly.

However, over the past decades, Russians have become accustomed to living in a variety of conditions - from very favorable to extremely negative. The methods of "preparing" for them are also known. This is the presence of a financial "safety cushion" in the amount of expenses for 3-6 months and savings in general. Mastering popular forms of employment and professions, education, mobility, investments in children.